政見園地
By CAROL AND DYMO
| |晚晚六點半｜｜|
BY MAYING7
Submitted to: Dr. Y. Ren
By Carol Lin ( ) & Catherine Poon (1078640) 25/4/2000
It is going to discuss about whether Russia should seek closer ties with major western powers or should strengthen the strategic partnership with China. Before the discussion, it is a need to assess Russia𠏋 foreign policy, national capacity and Putin𠏋 foreign objectives.
There are basically two objectives of Russia𠏋 current foreign policy:
First, it is the security problem. Russia wants to create an equal and peace international environment. Russia is prepared to make an active and weighty contribution to the creation of a world order that would ensure equal security conditions for all the states and enable them to jointly meet the present-day threats and challenges. Therefore, a fair world order with equal degree of security is her aim. And she also advocates to establish a multipolar world. In addition, Russia wants to establish equal and normal relations with United States of America, Europe and the Asian States.
Second, Russia wants to maintain and strengthen her leader role and her influential power. Traditionally, Russia (former Soviet Union) has its influence over the 幞Near Abroad?and Central and East European countries. Russia wants to keep up her leading position and her influences among the CIS (Commonwealth Independent Status) and also among the nearby nations.
Providing with the foreign objective of Russia, Russia'S𠏋 modern situation should be considered. Russia'S𠏋 GNP is far behind when comparing with both USA and China. And Russia only accounts for less than 1% of the world market which is lower then USA and Japan. The technology and R&D on industries are behind the world standard. For example, there are over 70% of Russia'S𠏋 machinery are over ten years old, which is more than two times the figure in the economically developed countries. Hence, Russia can be concluded that it is a backward country in economy.
From the speech of Putin, it gives his idea on Russia'S𠏋 future and it helps to decide which, west or east, Russia should get closer. His idea is mainly to build a strong state with efficient economy and integrate the Russian economy into world economic structures. He will achieve his aim by encouraging a dynamic economic growth, developing high technology and improving the agrarian policy etc. Besides, most important, he is going to revise Russia leadership power by first establishing its economy power.
With the objectives of Russia in foreign policy and her national capacity, Russia now is at the crossroad on choosing West, USA, or East, China. And provided with Putin𠏋 objectives on Russia'S𠏋 future development, it helps to give the following arguments.
First, as the security problem is the major concern of Russia, the relations with West, USA, is the major priority of Russia𠏋 foreign policy. These relations are based on mutual realization of the closeness of their strategic interests in ensuring international security. The non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the cuts in offensive weapons are pulling them getting closer.
However, some argue that US is not trustable. Since US had violated the rule to revise the ABM Treaty. On the other hand, for the geographical advantage and for security, Russia should get closer to China instead of US. Besides, if Russia get closer with China, there will be two permanent members of the Security Council and it may increase their bargaining power.
Second, the economic consideration of Russia. There are many internal problems of Russia, such as, the high unemployment rate. And Russia wants to turn its economy into a liberal and market economy. If Russia gets closer to the West, the western powers may help her in the above aspects. Financial aid from US and World bank help Russia in developing her economy. Also US provides Russia in technological development. Getting closer to US may help Russia a lot in her economic development.
On the contrary, some proposed that Russia should get closer with China. Since, for the economic reasons, Russia and China are communist state and China𠏋 successful economy may become a demonstration for Russia to follow. In addition, most of Russia𠏋 high valued added products and weapons are exported to China and Russia imported with China𠏋 daily necessities. Therefore, Russia should then turn to China.
Since Russia is a developing country, financial aid and the technological progress are very important for her development. However, financial aid and new technology both cannot be provided by China, it seems in the economic level, Russia should get closer with US rather than China.
For the international status, Russia should get along with China than US. Some said the situation will get more worse if Russia turned towards US. It is because the help of US may lead to US𠏋 intervention of Russia𠏋 internal policies. And also US may look down on Russia and Russia has to follow the way of US. Since Russia had been a big five before and her respected status, following US may lead to intensify internal conflicts. Besides, as Russia wants to strength her leadership status, following US may become Russia𠏋 humiliation and it is contradictory to Russia𠏋 aim.
In order to stabilize the internal conflict, get away from US control and maintain Russia𠏋 international status, some argued that Russia should get closer with China in order to keep her autonomy and her status. Furthermore, if Russia draw near with China, Russia and China can then become the balancing power in against US𠏋 hegemonic power. And since Japan as the common enemy of China and Russia, it is an advantage for drawing two together.
Apart from the above arguments, Russia should draw closer to China since US does not have a good impression on Putin, it is not favorable to get closer to US. Moreover, both China and Russia are communist state and are in the stage of developing countries, therefore, similar ideology, political and economic background would be more beneficial and favorable to draw near.
In conclusion, in choosing West or East, in my opinion, since Russia𠏋 objectives are international security, economic power and international and leadership status, Russia should get closer to the West to achieve her objectives. The West can benefit Russia in both international security and economic development. With the economic power, the country can raise its bargaining power, her nation𠏋 capacity and also the international status. Thus, the economy power is very important and the basic element for Russia to achieve her aims. As the western powers can provide Russia with financial aid and technological support which China cannot, hence, undoubtedly, Russia should seek closer ties with the major western powers.
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